Beyond the immediate economic impact, trade has the potential to act as a confidence-building measure between the two countries by forming established channels of communication

Prior to August 2019, when Pakistan formally suspended trade ties with India after India revoked Jammu & Kashmir’s special status, formal trade between the two countries was estimated at $2 billion – with a tilt in favour of India. However, it was the informal trade between the two countries also takes place through smuggling via land borders or third countries, such as Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and Singapore that was always making news as it was almost double the formal trade.

Attempts to streamline trade within the ambit of SAARC and outside it through bilateral parleys came a cropper. This is because suspending or restricting trade has often been one of the first courses of action in the event of escalating tensions from either a terrorist attack in India or mobilisation of forces on the Line of Control. For example, soon after the Pulwama attack in February 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi withdrew the Most Favoured Nation status that was awarded to Pakistan in 1996 and imposed 200 per cent custom duties on Pakistani goods.

Pakistan retaliated by suspending trade with India. Ordinary people were the losers, as enhanced economic co-operation and trade between neighbours has several trickle-down advantages.

Shortly after he assumed office, Imran did make a unilateral gesture of goodwill by opening up the Kartarpur corridor in 2019 for Sikh pilgrims. The resumption of trade would have been another step. Sadly, he has not been able to carry his cabinet colleagues with him. Contradictory impulses are coming out of Islamabad. It also appears that Imran, the champion cricketer, is yet to mature into a hard-nosed politician, despite leading his party Pakistan Tehreeq-e-Insaaf to a spectacular victory in 2018. Or is it that the Generals in Rawalpindi have let him down? Time alone will tell.