At the Southern battle front
The battle for South India has thus rapidly become one of the big headline points in this election, particularly since the Congress produced two thumping wins in the Karnataka and Telangana Assembly elections, defeating the BJP and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi of K Chandrasekhar Rao.
The BJP’s claim of ‘best ever showing’ in the southern states is riding largely on the Prime Minister’s supposed popularity in the region. It believes that, for the first time in South India, Modi’s popularity has grown to an extent that it can get the votes and seats. Top leaders point to increased vote share between 2014 and 2019 as another sign that the BJP’s reach in South India. In Kerala, the BJP got about 10 per cent in 2014 and 12.93 per cent five years later while, in Telangana, this jumped by over 10 per cent. In Karnataka, this increased by 8.38 per cent.
It was the reverse in Tamil Nadu, however, where in 2014 the BJP polled 5.5 per cent of the votes, which fell to less than 3.7 in 2019. Similarly, in Andhra Pradesh, the vote share fell 7.54 per cent between 2014 and 2019,
Revanth Reddy, Telangana Chief Minister, has cast serious doubts over the BJP’s big ‘Mission South’ claim, saying he expects the party to win fewer than 15 seats from the region. “Across the south there are 130 seats... BJP is going to get hardly 12-15. The rest will go with INDIA,” Reddy said.
Delimitation woe
Like Reddy, the chief ministers of the southern states have emerged as some of Modi’s fiercest critics and accused the BJP of depriving them of tax income and investment to punish and undermine their governments. Many in the south fear that the gulf between India’s north and south could worsen after 2026, when India’s electoral map is due to be redrawn according to population growth through the delimitation process.
India’s poor, more populous north – the stronghold of the BJP – is likely to gain parliamentary seats, while southern states, which successfully brought down their populations years ago through progressive welfare and education policies, are likely to lose significant parliamentary representation.
To put the controversy in the political context, the largest gainers under delimitation would be the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which would go from their current 174 seats to 284 seats (a 63 per cent increase) in the new larger Lok Sabha. The NDA won 156 of these 174 seats, an impressive strike rate of 90 per cent in the 2019 election. At these strike rates, the NDA would receive 255 seats just from these 4 states after delimitation – much of the way to the new majority mark of 377 seats.
In contrast, the states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala would go from their current 101 Lok Sabha seats to 107 seats (just a 6 per cent increase) in the new larger Lok Sabha after delimitation.
The worry is equally palpable in the matter of distribution of resources – and this explains the pushback by the opposition CMs. Since 2014, there has been marked political and fiscal centralisation in India. And the BJP has been openly campaigning on a platform of ‘double engine sarkar’ in state elections – an explicit promise of political patronage and party bias in fiscal transfers from the Centre.
The concerns around delimitation for the South are not just about losing a few parliamentarians. Rather, there is the real possibility that the fact that the South has a different political culture – along with better development outcomes and lower fertility rates – than the North, will result in the systematic loss of fiscal support from the Centre.
While there is talk that the concerns of southern states will be taken care of during the delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies by developing a mechanism that they continue to get a proportionate representation, the states are not impressed.
While the delimitation problem may emerge as a major administrative and political challenge for any government at the Centre, the immediate question is whether the political scenario in the South has changed dramatically for the BJP. Traditionally, the BJP has not been able to make much headway in the southern states, where regional parties or alliances are strong. Modi has been trying to gain acceptability in the South by projecting the development mantra and promoting the notion of a common national ethos.
Southern states contribute significantly to the country’s GDP (31 per cent), boasting of robust industrial sectors, thriving IT hubs, and a strong services economy. Recognising the region’s economic potential, Modi’s initiatives aim to play to these strengths like promoting investment, boosting starts-ups and infrastructure development.
Modi’s temple run and other gestures
Cultural symbolism also plays a crucial role in Modi’s South push. The Prime Minister has made efforts to engage with the unique cultural identities and sensitivities of southern states, fostering a sense of inclusivity and representation. From participating in regional festivals to promoting local languages, these gestures resonate with the populace, contributing to a sense of connect and belonging. He made multiple visits to southern temples before the Ram Mandir ‘Pran Pratisthan’ ceremony in Ayodhya in January 2024.
He has projected the installation of the ‘sacred sengol’ (sceptre) in the new Parliament building as an attempt to draw inspiration from the model of good governance that the Tamil heritage has given the country, in an apparent attempt to woo the people of the key southern state.
These are not bad goals themselves but they do not mitigate fears about Modi being a politician with a pro-Hindi bias, which works against people in the southern parts. From all indications, the PM so far has not been able to establish a strong emotional connect with the South. Lingual and cultural diversity, entrenched regional identities and historical political affiliations present hurdles to the BJP’s expansion efforts. His outreach also needs to be bolstered by a ground level network of party cadres, which is evident in Karnataka but absent in most of the other southern states.
Electoral alliances could have made up for some organisational deficiencies but this is not happening in any significant way, except in Andhra Pradesh. The BJP thinks it has pulled an ace in the form of the articulate K. Annamalai, who has enthused large sections of younger Tamilians but it remains to be seen how the former police officer fares.
