With the West, led by the new US administration, pushing for sanctions against the country, and China finding itself on the horns of a dilemma, New Delhi may have the luxury of not coming out openly in favour of democracy and compromising its security and developmental interests

Myanmar embarked on its democratic transition in 2011. India has continued cultivating both the civilian government and the military leadership – with this engagement taking on a renewed emphasis in recent years, as a way to counter China’s rising influence in Southeast Asia. In the past, questions on India’s engagement with a military-ruled state, long before Suu Kyi arrived on the scene, have always elicited the bland official response that there are various reasons for it and that it is important for India and Myanmar to remain engaged. Also, India follows a tradition of dealing with the government of the day which is in power and it is for the people of Myanmar to decide what kind of a government they want.

Yet, despite the cooperation, India’s bilateral trade stood at a mere $1.5 billion. In contrast, China’s trade with Myanmar runs into $12 billion. This is because of Beijing’s assiduous wooing of Suu Kyi that culminated in Xi Jinping visiting Myanmar in 2020. Some of the generals have business interests in Myanmar that have benefited from Chinese largesse. But the generals are also suspicious of Beijing’s role in supporting armed ethnic rebels in the country’s north.

Japan is another democratic country that has been cultivating Myanmar. A lot of Japanese companies have made inroads into the country and some have set up manufacturing facilities there, as the labour market is attractive and they can open up a new market for their products and services. This has led to speculation in Asian diplomatic circles that Washington may consult India and Japan before it firms up its response to the coup. New Delhi now needs to step up its game by promoting Indian business interests in Myanmar.