Will normalcy return to Myanmar?
The recently concluded elections in Myanmar (which were held in three phases) have paved the way for the military-led Junta government to return to power. Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has said that the military-run election was a ‘success’. However, a formal announcement of the election results hasn’t been made yet.
The military-led government has said that the Parliament will be convened in March and a new government will be formed in April. Though these elections have been termed as fraudulent and unfair, there is a possibility that members of certain ethnic groups could be included in the Cabinet – to bring about stability in the years ahead.
“Only an illegitimate government can emerge from an illegitimate election,” says Tom Andrews, UN special rapporteur on Human Rights in Myanmar. “As Myanmar’s election ends, the world must reject it as fraudulent, while also rejecting what follows as simply military rule in civilian clothing.” Mohamad Hasan, minister for foreign affairs, Malaysia, had also said that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) would not certify the election, citing concerns over the lack of inclusive and free participation of the citizens of Myanmar in it. ASEAN did not send observers to the elections, though Myanmar is a member of the association; nor is it likely to recognise the election results.
Meanwhile, for India, it is important to have stability in the neighbourhood. India has a 1,643 km-long border with Myanmar, touching Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram. Bilateral trade between the two countries amounted to $2.15 billion in 2024-25 and has a target to reach $5 billion by 2030. Besides, India has also invested in the Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project.
“From what I gathered visiting polling stations, meeting the voters and the military, it seems a power-sharing arrangement is being worked out by the military-led Junta government that would include most ethnic groups,” Lt General Arun Sahni, a former army commander, who was invited as an independent observer during the first phase of elections in Myanmar, told Business India. “If that happens, Myanmar could have some sort of acceptable civilian government, once elections are over”. During the conversations he had with voters at the poll centres and locals, including some party leaders and eminent citizens, he felt there was an expectation and hope that the elections would herald peace and stability, General Sahni added.
Talks of power-sharing
Junta General Min Aung Hlaing seems to have a plan. “Elections, despite excluding National League for Democracy (NLD) and some other smaller groups that were part of National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar’s next government would be more acceptable to other countries, especially the neighbouring states,” General Sahni added. “Some power-sharing arrangement may have been worked out, as most Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAO) have been taken on board, barring Kachin and Chin. Maybe there are some back-channel talks with some of the ethnic groups, and power sharing could be considered for their support, though, on the other side, nearly 19 EAO have announced a Spring Offensive”.
India has invested over Rs4,000 crore in the Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project, which is likely to be completed by 2027 – after overshooting costs and completion deadlines. A stable government in Myanmar will ensure its early completion and safety. So far, both the Junta-led government and the EAO have protected India’s interests in this project, and no harm has been done to the parts that are complete.
“India had provided training to Myanmar’s election officials; also, the Electronic Voting Mechanism (EVM), though of indigenous design, is a copy of the Indian EVM. Once the government is in place, Myanmar could get support from India in training on power-sharing between the Centre and states and provinces, as well as on governance and institution-building. Myanmar would definitely expect India to recognise the elected government,’’ said General Sahni.
Through the years…
Myanmar’s military junta first seized power in a 1962 coup, establishing military rule that lasted until 2011, before returning in another coup on 1 February 2021, deposing the elected government and re-imposing direct military control.
• First Junta (1962-2011). Direct military rule began in 1962 under Ne Win and continued for decades, only ending with a transition to quasi-civilian government in 2011.
• Recent coup (2021). The military, known as the Tatmadaw, seized power again on 1 February 2021, arresting leaders like Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint and establishing the State Administration Council (SAC).
• Resumption of Power. The 2021 coup ended a brief period of democratic reforms and re-established military dictatorship.