Will Modi's China visit bring positive signs?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to be in Tianjin, China, on 31 August to attend the Shanghai Corporation Organisation (SCO) Summit. China being the host, PM Modi will share the stage with President Xi Jingping and also Russian President Vladimir Putin, as he is expected to attend the summit in person.

Modi will be in Japan on 30 August, before going to China. This would be his first visit to China since the clashes between Indian and Chinese soldiers took place in Galwan in 2020.

The ties between India and China have improved this year. The resumption of Kailash Manasarovar Yatra, increase in the number of visas issued and talks on resumption of direct flights (which could coincide with PM Modi’s China visit) are amongst the visible improvements. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar had attended SCO meetings in China earlier this year.

The SCO summit is likely to witness talks about strengthening trade and transport ties within the region. Against the backdrop of the tariffs that the US has imposed, there could be special emphasis on trade. “China has been urging India to resume direct flights to make travel easier,” informs a source. “The prime minister is likely to make an announcement to this effect during the summit”.

Direct flights were halted after Covid-19 pandemic, followed by the Galwan clashes. However, now there is an emphasis on resumption of flights, with India mentioning such a possibility, in January this year. “Resuming direct flights between India and China is conducive to personnel exchanges and co-operation between the two sides, which would be of common interest,’’ said China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, after Sun Weidong, China’s vice-minister for foreign affairs, visited India and met Vikram Misri, India’s foreign secretary, in June this year.

The upcoming summit is likely to invite comments from US President Donald Trump, who was critical of the BRICS Summit (which was attended by Narendra Modi in Brazil in July this year). After the summit in Brazil, Trump had threatened the members with tariffs. “Any country aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of BRICS will face duties with no exceptions,” Trump had said. “The members of the BRICS will pay 10 per cent tariff. We will never let anyone play games with us. BRICS was set up to hurt us, to degenerate our dollar”. He had earlier threatened BRICS nations with 100 per cent tariffs, if BRICS created a new currency.

Tariff terror

In the past one week, President Trump has imposed 25 per cent tariffs on India, and an additional penalty on oil imports by Russia. The EU too spoke in unison with President Trump on India importing oil from Russia. Interestingly, unlike the past, when India had ignored such statements, this time, India has hit back. “India has been targeted by the US and EU for importing oil from Russia after the commencement of the Ukraine conflict,” informed a statement issued by the ministry of external affairs (MEA) last week. “In fact, India began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the conflict. The US at that time had actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability”.

India further stated that the EU had, in 2024, accomplished bilateral trade of €67.5 billion in goods with Russia. In addition, it had trade in services, estimated at €17.2 billion in 2023. “This is significantly more than India’s total trade with Russia that year or subsequently. European imports of LNG in 2024 in fact reached a record 16.5 million tonnes – surpassing the last record of 15.21 million tonnes in 2022,” said the MEA statement.

India also argued that the US has continued to import uranium hexafluoride from Russia for its nuclear industry and palladium for its EV industry, besides fertilisers and chemicals. “Against such a background, the targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable. Like any major economy, India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and security,” the MEA statement added.