All eyes are on the Presidential election due in July. The big victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh and lesser victories in three other states have given Prime Minister Narendra Modi a free hand to decide on the successor to President Ram Nath Kovind, who will complete his tenure on 24 July. Yet, Modi and his political aides are keeping the suspense going on the likely successor.
It is unlikely that Modi will do an A.P.J. Abdul Kalam on the Opposition parties like former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee did in 2002. The choice of Kalam, a reputed scientist and the man behind India’s missile programme, had left the Opposition parties scrambling for a counter.
The exercise of choosing candidates for the offices of the President and the Vice-President will go on in parallel tracks. According to convention, the election for the office of the President of India is notified in mid-June and polling begins in July. Vice-President Venkaiah Naidu’s tenure will come to an end on 10 August. It is possible that Naidu, a former president of the BJP and a Union minister, may be chosen to step into Kovind’s shoes.
During the 2017 Presidential election, BJP had a road-roller majority in the electoral college, with Shiv Sena and Akali Dal as NDA allies. Also, the AIADMK was in power in Tamil Nadu with a huge majority, and its MLAs voted for the PM’s preferred candidate, Kovind. The Biju Janata Dal too had backed Kovind.
There is a changed scenario now. The DMK, an Opposition party in Parliament, is the ruling party in Tamil Nadu. After the abrogation of Article 370, the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly was dissolved and is yet to be revived. So, much was to depend on the outcome of the elections to the five states due in February-March. Luckily for Modi, the results have been favourable.
Key player
But the BJP and its allies are just a wee bit short (1.2 per cent) of the half-way mark in the electoral college of MPs and MLAs. In case of a tight face-off, the BJD, led by Naveen Patnaik, could emerge as a key player. With 21 MPs across both houses of the Parliament, Patnaik controls about 3.22 per cent of votes, which can ensure a smooth win for the BJP.
That apart, while the government is comfortably placed to pick the candidate of their choice, the election will find the Opposition, which is keen to force an ideological contest, in a difficult position exposing its fault lines and challenging Congress’s position as the lead Opposition party.
So far, no formal conversations have started except for loud musings within a section of Congress. Congress leaders concede that it is a fact that the Opposition does not have the numbers. “But this is not simple arithmetic; it is a battle of ideology, so we will put up a candidate. And, anyway, the only closely fought Presidential election was in 1969 and yet number or no numbers, they have been contested,” says a former CM. Outside of the Congress-led UPA, TMC, TRS, Aam Aadmi Party and Samajwadi Party hold a significant number of votes. A Congress nominee will not be acceptable to these parties.
TMC, TRS and AAP have taken a public position against being shepherded by Congress. The TRS president and Telangana Chief Minister, K. Chandrashekhar Rao, has been lobbying for an anti-BJP front minus the Congress. To this end, he recently met Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin and NCP patriarch Sharad Pawar.
The Trinamool Congress, which is jockeying for the lead Opposition party’s position after their spectacular victory in May 2021 Assembly elections in West Bengal, won’t be part of any negotiations led by the Congress. “The fault is not ours. What did Congress do in Goa? They were in a stronger position and yet they rebuffed all our attempts at forming an alliance. In West Bengal, knowing well they didn’t stand a chance, they still aligned with the Left parties against us,” a senior TMC leader said.
The AAP and the Congress have had a frosty relationship since AAP’s 2015 victory in Delhi and recently in Punjab. AAP has not been part of any Opposition meets hosted by the Congress.
The Congress, with its diminished strength, is no longer in a position to dictate terms. So, if the Opposition does indeed put up a joint candidate, it will be anybody but from the Congress.