Opposition unity: A work in progress
The hasty disqualification of Rahul Gandhi as a member of the Lok Sabha, following a contestable outcome of a defamation case against him in a Surat court, has seen 19 big and small Opposition parties, hitherto deeply divided, come together, at least in Parliament to take on the Modi government. Even the Trinamool Congress and Aam Aadmi Party, arch opponents of the Congress party, with no love lost on either side, have come out in support of Rahul.
They have been joined by the Bharat Rashtra Samithi and the Samajwadi Party, which are usually wary of the Congress, to condemn the action and call it out as dictatorial. But it is early to presume that the momentum will sustain in the months leading to the next Lok Sabha election in 2024 remains to be seen.
At present, Rahul’s disqualification is being seen as political victimisation of a rival by the ruling BJP. Many parties like the AAP and Trinamool have suffered the same fate as the Congress, with their leaders being sent to jail on genuine or trumped-up corruption charges. In recent years, Central agencies (the Enforcement Directorate and the Central Bureau of Investigation) have cornered Opposition leaders, and gone either aggressive or passive on cases, according to the convenience of the BJP.
These parties possibly realise that mutual rivalries and fear of the BJP and the Central agencies could drive them to the margins or, even worse, at the receiving end of more vindictiveness; 14 of these parties have approached the Supreme Court, complaining against the misuse of Central agencies.
The petitioners say they represent 4 per cent of the electorate, and that 95 per cent of the cases filed by the agencies have been against Opposition leaders. Political observers may see this as a move for self-preservation, as these parties are still far from having a joint view on several critical national issues.
Three agreements
Despite all the energy and photo-ops that this has generated, little can be done without at least three agreements – one, a basic common agenda that allows the opposition parties across the country to at least raise some similar national demands with one voice; two, strong organisation at local levels to bring the voters out, get the vote cast, and protect the booths and the machines after; three, and perhaps the most important of all to allow the main party in every state to have a larger rather than smaller say in the distribution of seats. So, a robust opposition to the BJP is a work in progress.
Till now, regional parties have continuously adjusted their relationship with the two national parties, the BJP and the Congress. From the vantage points of regional outfits like the YSR Congress and the Biju Janata Dal, these two national parties are not necessarily two polar opposites.
As a general rule, regional parties seek to expand their influence and power through fluctuating relations with the national parties, even when they are technically equidistant from both. The party in power in New Delhi has considerable leverage, and regional parties are often vulnerable to pressure.
That is why the YSRC and BJD have remained wary of confronting the BJP, and have often broken ranks with the rest. The Trinamool Congress, for instance, was till the other day not in alignment with the Congress-led strategy against the BJP in demanding a joint parliamentary committee into the Adani controversy.
At the heart of the confrontation between the BJP and the Congress are questions regarding the Adani group of companies accused of dubious ownership patterns and business transactions. The BJP and the Centre have so far deflected these questions. The disqualification of Rahul suited the BJP as it kept the focus of the Gandhi scion and not on l’affaire Adani.
Though it is early days, the coming together of Opposition parties is the first signal that things could get rough for the BJP in 2024. The willingness amongst the other 18 parties to accept the Congress in the lead role, provides the foundation for the building blocks of opposition unity that need to follow.
Till now the leaders above were not willing to accept this, but recent weeks and events have clearly brought about a change in perception. Now comes the difficult part – of getting along and working together.
As for the BJP, if it was complicit in the expulsion of Rahul from the Lok Sabha, hoping to remove a pesky rival from the scene, as alleged by the Congress, then it may have perhaps miscalculated.