As the war in Iran makes daily headlines, another development is being relegated to the back pages. The recent clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan forces on the Durand Line should also be a matter of equal worry to us due to its geographical proximity and the fact that India has just opened up its bridges with the Taliban regime in Kabul. The conflict, which has been simmering for over a year, escalated in February, when the Pakistan Air Force struck Taliban bases in Kabul, Kandahar and Paktia, in what it called Operation Righteous Fury. Tensions have also risen after Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacks killed 11 soldiers and a child in Bajaur and 32 people in a mosque in Islamabad, following a suicide bombing. Pakistan, which has accused the Taliban administration of harbouring the TTP, has reacted savagely with its superior weaponry and air power. Pakistani airstrikes have killed many innocent Afghans. India has condemned Pakistan’s ‘cowardly’ targeting of a hospital, rejecting its denial as a cover-up for a ‘massacre’ and calling for an international inquiry.
But there is surely much more it can do. For instance, it can enlist other SCO members, who have been concerned over the outbreak of an ‘open war’ between Pakistan and Afghanistan, to intervene. The region is already suffering from trade, energy and travel restrictions, as a result of the Iran war, to risk more volatility and loss of lives. Besides, keeping Kabul on its side is essential to ensure that Pakistan and China, whose influence has grown in South Asia in recent years, do not have a free run in the region. India has to do some proactive strategic manoeuvring. It can provide more humanitarian and ‘technical’, if not outright military, help. Remember, Afghanistan is blessed with immense mineral resources. Decades of conflict, lack of infrastructure and challenging mountainous terrain have hindered large-scale extraction. Once the situation stabilises, a new opportunity may arise.
Naturally, Pakistan is angered by closer India-Afghanistan ties and New Delhi’s hosting of Taliban ministers, accusing the Taliban of turning Afghanistan into an ‘Indian colony’ – a turnaround from its support, in 2021, for the Taliban’s rise to power in Kabul. Apart from its continued tensions with India and now Afghanistan, Pakistan is benefiting from the global focus on the US-Israel war with Iran. The US’s actions here and its statement expressing support for Pakistan’s ‘right to defend itself against Taliban attacks’ have also imbued Pakistan’s generals with a sense of impunity to strike targets in Afghanistan at will.
New Delhi could be permitted some sense of ‘payback’ as Islamabad’s fight against cross-border terrorism from Afghanistan mirrors India’s problems with Pakistan. The constraints on Pakistan’s military in a two-front situation with India and Afghanistan, compounded by a transnational war on the third front, may also be the source of some relief for India. Despite no dialogue with Pakistan, and the opening of bridges with a Taliban regime it deals with but does not formally recognise, India’s diplomatic role in the conflict would appear limited. But it can be enlarged in scope.
India’s relations with Afghanistan predate the Taliban. When the Taliban first rose to power in Afghanistan in 1996, India adopted a hostile policy towards the group and did not recognise its assumption of power. At the time, New Delhi viewed the Taliban as a proxy for Pakistan’s intelligence agencies. The US-led invasion led to the installation of a new government led by Hamid Karzai. Post-Karzai, India was a strong supporter of his successor, Ashraf Ghani, who was in power from September 2014 until August 2021, when the US withdrew from the country.
The wheel has now turned a full circle. As relations between Pakistan and the Taliban deteriorate over armed groups, which Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of harbouring, India has begun engaging with the Taliban. India officially reopened its embassy in the Afghan capital last October. New Delhi also allowed the Taliban to operate Afghanistan consulates in Mumbai and Hyderabad. Last year, the Taliban administration’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited New Delhi and met S. Jaishankar, India’s minister for external affairs. Besides beefing up diplomatic ties, India has also offered humanitarian support to Afghanistan after an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 struck the country. Since last December, India has also approved and implemented several healthcare infrastructure projects in Afghanistan.
India’s attitude is now one of strategic pragmatism towards the Afghan leadership. New Delhi does not want to cede strategic space to Pakistan and China in its neighbourhood. There is also the realisation that the Taliban is now in charge in Afghanistan and that there is no meaningful opposition. The world over, states seek to protect their interests. That is why India should step up its act.