As India builds up a case against Pakistan for sponsoring terror, its attempts to strengthen ties with three of Pakistan’s closest allies have not been highlighted. But expressions of support from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan stand out and can be instrumental in building India’s case. This development now needs to be nurtured through diplomatic, economic and cultural initiatives. The salutary impact of a well-timed strategy in turning around ties with countries that had refused India cooperation three decades ago cannot be underestimated.
Following Operation Sindoor, Pakistan accused India of violating Article 51 of the UN Charter. Islamabad had hoped that it would receive support from Muslim countries but, out of the 50-plus Islamic nations globally, only Turkey and Azerbaijan openly stood with Pakistan, while the rest adopted a moderate stance. It was clear that the Muslim nations were not viewing the India-Pakistan conflict through the prism of religion; rather, their stance was driven by a diplomatic and economic point of view.
However, Turkey backed Islamabad’s demand for an international investigation into the Pahalgam attack and also supplied weapons to it. Azerbaijan released a statement that echoed Pakistan’s position on the conflict. The two countries are now facing the heat of reduced tourist inflows from India, among other punitive measures. In case of Turkey, its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long been obsessed with reviving Turkey’s ancient glory by building a modern version of the Ottoman Empire and ruling the Islamic world. Erdogan’s narrative has found support among Pakistan top military and civilian leadership; hence, Ankara was openly standing with Islamabad. Turkey often brings up the Kashmir issue, which it has no stake or business in.
Azerbaijan’s case is a bit different. While not a direct supporter of Pakistan, Azerbaijan shares close diplomatic, economic, defence and cultural ties with Turkey, to the extent that some experts have even called it a satellite state of Ankara.
However, other Muslim nations chose a different tack. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Jeddah, when he received news of the Pahalgam attack. Although he cut short his visit, he discussed the attack at some length with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The joint statement recorded their strong condemnation of the attack, rejecting any attempt to ‘link terrorism to any particular race, religion or culture’. The wording marks the strongest such language used and is the culmination of the process begun in 2006 with the India-KSA Delhi Declaration, followed by the 2010 Strategic Partnership agreement that turned the compass in the Saudi Kingdom on terrorism. In 2012, Saudi authorities assisted India in securing the arrest of Sayed Zabiuddin Ansari alias Abu Jundal, an LeT Indian co-conspirator being tried for the 26/11 attacks. The assistance marked a turnaround in ties, given the Kingdom’s history of funding Islamist extremist groups at madrasas in Pakistan and other countries. Ties have now been transformed with technological co-operation and the promise of $100 billion Saudi investment.
As for the UAE, India has made strides in co-operation, boosted by the signing of the Strategic Partnership in 2017, and at least six visits by PM Modi, leading to a turn-around since the 1990s. In April, New Delhi rolled out the red carpet for Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai and the UAE’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, cementing ties with a country that has been one of Pakistan’s closest backers.
Finally, last week saw a surprise visit to Kabul by the MEA’s point-person for Pakistan-Afghanistan-India and a meeting with Taliban acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi as well as a ‘categorical condemnation’ by the Taliban of the Pahalgam killings – a far cry from the Taliban’s past in targeting Indian interests in Afghanistan in collaboration with Pakistani agencies. Subsequently, external affairs minister S. Jaishankar spoke to Muttaqi on the phone. It would not be pragmatic to assume a full change of heart with the Taliban, but the support against terrorism is bound to be one more pressure point on Pakistan.
Indeed, Pakistan has acted with barely concealed alacrity to this development and announced it will upgrade its diplomatic ties with Afghanistan and appoint an ambassador to the country. There is talk now that India will ‘do whatever is necessary’ in the near future to establish stronger relations with the Taliban-ruled state. For instance, South Block will consider the possibility of extending humanitarian assistance to 80,000 Afghan refugees, who have been forcefully repatriated by Pakistan.
Pahalgam could thus be a turning point in the evolution of the Modi government’s foreign policy.