The ruling party of Myanmar, the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, has won enough parliamentary seats to form the next government. This is a welcome boost for Suu Kyi who has had a turbulent first term marked by a brutal 2017 crackdown on the ethnic (Muslim) Rohingya that is now the subject of a genocide investigation. The term was dogged by myriad ethnic conflicts and now, coronavirus. This time, the ballot was seen as a referendum on Suu Kyi’s government, which maintained its popularity at home even as the Rohingya crisis damaged its international reputation and took the sheen off her Nobel Laureate image. Rohingya were excluded from the poll, while voting was cancelled in some areas.
Though Myanmar does not make it to the headlines in the Indian media as much as our other neighbours do, its geographical location makes it all the more important, as it stands at the centre of India-southeast Asia geography, sharing a 1,624km land border with north-eastern India and a 725km maritime boundary along the Bay of Bengal.
Being the only country that sits at the intersection of India’s Neighbourhood First policy and its Act East policy, Myanmar is an essential element in India’s practice of regional diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific, and serves as a land bridge to connect South Asia and Southeast Asia. It is therefore in India’s geostrategic interest to see Myanmar prevail as a stable and autonomous country.
The last thing the Modi government would want is a failed Myanmar state at India’s doorstep, possibly falling into the clutches of China.
Myanmar’s geostrategic importance to India has meant that New Delhi did not take a hard-line approach on Naypyidaw vis-à-vis the Rohingya issue, even keeping its distance when Myanmar was hauled into the International Court of Justice. But the Rohingya issue needs a swift resolution.
In the recent past, India, while providing humanitarian relief to the refugees, had to deport several hundred of them because of what the Union home ministry said was turning into a ‘security problem’. Perhaps India, along with Bangladesh, can play a mediatory role in resolving this problem.
Myanmar is a member of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), the mini-lateral sub-regional organisation that is committed to fostering bilateral or regional cooperation among Bay of Bengal countries. But much like SAARC, it seems to have lost direction. And with a total bilateral trade of $2 billion, India’s economic engagement with Myanmar lags behind China and needs to be scaled up.
Infrastructure projects are underway, such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport, which aims to connect Kolkata port with the Sittwe deep-water port in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, by the sea. It is incumbent on India to bring the projects to fruition expeditiously. The long-pending plan to set up a Special Economic Zone surrounding Sittwe port will cement India’s footprint in Rakhine and boost its presence in the Bay of Bengal.
For economic relations to improve, India and Myanmar must boost their security cooperation at the border. The more secure the border is, the greater the economic activity will be. Part of the reason why the KMMTT has faced delays is that the route of the project traverses a warzone in Rakhine state, where a battle rages on between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army rebels on the one hand, and on the other, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army.
The Indian and Myanmar armies have carried out two joint military operations along the borders of Myanmar’s Rakhine state, which borders the Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram. As Myanmar is critical to our national security interests, the move to provide military training and small weapon systems should be regularised. In fact, a country like Myanmar is a fit candidate for our military exports under the Make in India programme.
So far, New Delhi has failed to capitalise on Myanmar’s importance to India for tourism purposes. The tourism ministry’s Buddhist Circuit initiative, which seeks to double foreign tourist arrivals and revenue by connecting ancient Buddhist heritage sites across different states in India, should resonate with Buddhist-majority Myanmar.
Myanmar suffered nearly 50 years of isolation and decay under strict military rule, and Suu Kyi herself spent many years under house arrest before the generals began to loosen their hold on power and the first elections were held in 2011. Even now, her government is required to govern with military involvement. She deserves more than a helping hand.