It would be no exaggeration to say that the current global scenario is far from being normal. Tariff war initiated by the new dispensation in Washington, the Russian-Ukraine war still being away from the finishing line and the turmoil in the Middle-East have once again brought back the era of geopolitical uncertainty. And each one of these factors
are emitting ominous signals in terms of further damaging outcomes in the coming months and years, if they are not checked effectively now.
The most unfortunate part of the current turmoil is: it is pushing some of the most crucial imperatives with medium-to-long-term global implications to the backburner. It is no secret to anybody that climate change and its negative fallout during the course of this century is a major serious challenge. But the need to put up an effective collaborative fight seems to have lost its way despite all the song and dance made on it internationally in the last 25 years.
There have been many reports in the past elaborating how climate change is going to affect our global food security regime in the coming years and decades. And, a recent report by Nature, a reputed international journal, is yet another rap on the knuckle trying to remind us of the inevitability which may emerge from our inability to act on time. The study says that there could well be a decline (in varying degrees) in more than half of the world’s crop, if global temperature rises by 2°C. The study has taken into account 30 major crops by drawing four warming scenarios, ranging from 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial levels.
At 1.5°C of warming, the study says, more than half of the studied crops would experience a net loss in crop area. The most affected crops would include wheat, barley, soybeans, lentils and potatoes. If the temperature rise is over 2°C, the decline in the case of some crops would be as steep as a 50 per cent. And there would be further progressive devastation if the temperature rise crosses the 3°C warming mark. It further earmarks the regions where loss in crop area or productivity would be relatively higher. These are the ones which are close to the equator such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. India lies in this zone and the equator passes through eight of its states. In pockets close to the equator, the decline in crop diversity would be highest, affecting as much as 70 per cent of the crop area. But the regions away from the equator like North and Latin America, Europe and Central Asia
will be relatively better-positioned to deal with climate vagaries. The study has strongly pitched for limiting the inevitable warming incident to not more than 2°C as it would lead to modest to massive disruptions in food production particularly in tropical zones, which usually have a bigger concentration of low income countries.
This is not the first study of its kind. There have been many in the past, which have emphasised on the imperative of restructuring the global agricultural landscape and quick adoption of diversified cropping systems to ensure food security for the future. And, it is not just the issue of ensuring food security. It would also have larger socio-economic consequences. “Without solutions, falling crop yields, especially in the world’s most food-insecure regions, will push more people into poverty – an estimated 43 million people in Africa alone could fall below the poverty line by 2030 as a result,” a recent World Bank report had also maintained.
The situation on the food security front is, therefore, turning grim. And we are getting consistent reminders on it. But, unfortunately, there does not seem to be much action on this front. The last edition of COP summit, the biggest global discussion stage on climate deterioration, turned out to be a massive debacle, which had raised serious doubts if the world will move in tandem (rising above global north and global south differences). The US, under Trump, has already shown its back to the Paris Climate Agreement and nobody has a clarity on the future developments vis-à-vis a collective global fight against climate change. In such a scenario, further ignorance of food security measures should not be a surprising factor. There are food security programmes aided by multilateral agencies but it’s doubtful if they will create an effective shield in protecting crop production. Many countries (including India) have also initiated climate-resilient agriculture programmes but their scale is too small and scaling them up would be easier said than done. It could well be the case of time bomb ticking but in the din of insignificant noises, not many are making a note of it.