Fresh resurgence of Covid-19 bodes ill

This week marks the completion of exactly one year since the first countrywide lockdown was imposed on account of the Covid-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, far from showing any signs of vanishing from the scene, Covid-19 has come back with a vengeance during the past one month. And, the disease burden has once again touched the peak of July-August 2020, just when the Central government lifted the nationwide lockdown and allowed the different state governments to decide for themselves.

The Union health ministry records show that, as of 19 March, Friday, there are as many as 271,000 active cases of Covid-19. Of these, an astounding 61.8 per cent were found in Maharashtra alone, while Kerala and Punjab account for a further 14 per cent. If we breakdown these numbers further, eight of the 10 districts in the country to report the highest number of active cases are in Maharashtra, while one is in Kerala (Ernakulam) and one in Karnataka (Bengaluru Urban). Within Maharashtra, the districts with the most number of active cases are Pune (35,539) and Nagpur (24,209), while Mumbai (17.153), Thane (15,548) and Nashik (11.037) come next. Besides, an astounding 14 per cent of people in Maharashtra have tested positive, compared to a national average of about 3.1 per cent! 

The bad news does not end here. Between 21 February and 19 March, the daily case count rose in Maharashtra from 6,281 to 25,883; the Punjab figures from 352 to 2,369; while that of Kerala climbed to 1,899. Other states including Gujarat, Delhi and Madhya Pradesh are also in focus since their daily case figures too have climbed substantially.

This is not the first time that the world has experienced a revival of the Covid-19 pandemic, after a relative downward climb of cases. Business India had reported (Cover Feature, November 30-December 13) that, in mid-November, the total active cases in India were 425,000 after a substantial reduction. That the current load of active cases is quite a bit lower is hardly a consolation, much less a reason to feel pleased with ourselves. Even then, Gujarat and Delhi were among the four-five states to come under the search light. In the past month as well, these two states have reported a five-fold increase in active cases.

So, why did this happen? And what can be done to bend the curve in a favourable direction? First off, the same reasons that caused the spurt during the Navratri-Diwali and Christmas-New Year period are applicable now as well. At that time, a Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) memo spoke about a general laxity in following the government guidelines, including wearing masks outside home, washing hands after returning from an outing, etc.

Now, we find that during cricket matches, election rallies (in West Bengal, for instance) and religious gatherings of different communities, etc, people are packed close together and only a small minority are wearing masks! Under these circumstances, it is no surprise that the Covid-19 cases are soaring. In Punjab, the long-drawn-out farmers’ agitation, where caution has been thrown to the winds, has also contributed to the disaster.

The one thing that has changed since the middle of 2020 is the availability of vaccines of at least two varieties for the Indian people. These are Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin and AstraZeneca’s Covishield (which Serum Institute of India is also manufacturing). Despite the controversies swirling around these two, the Central government has gone ahead with a massive drive of vaccinating the vulnerable segments of the population. 

As of 19 March, a total 39.3 million people have received the vaccination, mostly through the public health networks. Compared to this, one-third of the entire US population and half of all people in the UK have already been vaccinated. Admittedly, the populations of those countries are much smaller than India but, even then, the difference is stark. It is high time both the Central and state governments open up the system, involve the private healthcare establishments much more deeply and do away with the numerous categories applicable at present.

One view is that the government is reluctant to broaden the vaccination drive, because enough quantities are not yet available. This too would change soon with the entry of Zy-CovD from Zydus Cadila and a new vaccine from the Pune-based Gennova. The government will then be left with fewer excuses than at present.