The surge of the UDF
The Left Democratic Front (LDF) picked a double-edged sword to anchor their campaign in the recent assembly elections in Keralam. They decided to bet on one person, Pinarayi Vijayan, the chief minister, who had led the LDF government for the last 10 years – an unprecedented feat in the electoral history of the southern state.
Throughout the length and breadth of Keralam, the LDF campaign had huge hoardings of just Vijayan’s face (not even the party symbol of the CPM, which leads the LDF alliance). The campaign asked only one question: ‘Who else other than the LDF?’ The question bordered on complacency, if not arrogance.
On 4 May, when the poll results were announced, the LDF got the answer. It was the UDF! The United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the Congress Party, swept the elections with a thumping victory, pocketing 102 of the 120 seats. The LDF was not just voted out but was booted out with just 35 seats. The NDA won three seats, their best performance so far in Keralam.
The LDF leadership is still groping in the dark for reasons for the unexpected mandate, with 13 ministers losing their seats. They say the govt did everything possible for the welfare of the people, even running the risk of piling up the overall debt of the state, yet the people of Keralam preferred the UDF with such a thumping mandate.
Interestingly, it seems, the LDF had failed to see the elephant in the room – the increasing dictatorial tendencies of the chief minister and his idiosyncratic manners of conduct, language and attitude to the public, journalists and the Opposition. It is no secret that Keralam has been reeling under the burden of public debt. Yet, the LDF government spent like a millionaire on festivities, welfare schemes and borrowed without a care (and audit) through KIIFB (Kerala Infrastructure Investment Board). The state prided on topping the national table on many indices like health, literacy, etc.
But the LDF failed to read the writing on the wall that the people of Keralam are highly sensitive to any signs of dictatorship. And, the signs were quite visible – the elaborate convoy of vehicles to accompany the chief minister (some say, even 40), and aura of autocracy and infallibility, the arrogance of the party officials and the scant respect for any difference of opinion.
Even though there were whispers of an LDF defeat, no one was more precise than the Opposition leader V.D. Satheesan, who predicted 100+ seats for the UDF. Governments that borrow recklessly to pay for unproductive schemes actively weaken economic growth had been fighting the chief minister and the cabinet tooth and nail on policies and matters of governance.
Ever since he was made the Leader of Opposition (in 2021) by the Congress High Command over the experienced Ramesh Chennithala, Satheesan has been talking about Team UDF in his efforts to bring together the infamous, in-fighting groups within Congress. The results show that he has hit the nail exactly on its head.
The factors that are believed to have led to the LDF debacle are the allegations of corruption and embezzlement within a co-operative bank, the gold theft controversy at the Sabarimala Temple, the rise of public debt, which has crossed Rs4 lakh crore, the alleged sidelining of senior leader and former minister K.K. Shailaja, and the rampant marks of contempt and arrogance from the cabinet ministers.
‘Stalinist culture’
Three senior leaders who raised their voice against autocratic tendencies and nepotism in the party had to leave the party – and all three of them have been elected to the assembly with the support of the UDF. A large number of CPM followers have voiced their displeasure over the ‘Stalinist culture’ creeping into the party. But no one turned a hair even after the drubbing in the Parliament and local body elections – such was the degree of complacency after 10 years of continuous rule.
Not that the LDF rule was without any highlights of achievements. In November last year, Keralam became the first state in India to officially declare itself free of extreme poverty, thanks to its Extreme Poverty Eradication Project. Despite the number of welfare schemes and pensions, there was a critical disconnect with the common man, even including the party’s own followers. But the leadership was blind, it seems, to the ominous writing on the wall.
Now that the UDF has come to power, it has many hurdles to overcome. Though Satheesan has said that the new government will not get rid of the projects, which are beneficial to the people, the task of finding a fresh breath of air for the state is easier said than done.