With a Red Wave sweeping across the US in the 2024 elections that decimated all the three bastions of the blue – the House, the Senate and Electoral College votes, capped off by a huge 76 million popular votes cast in favour of Trump – the temperature is beginning to rise on the Climate Agenda. What cascades across the US ultimately trickles over to other continents that face the common threat of Global Warming.
The recent opening pronouncements in Baku COP29 UN Climate Summit in Azerbaijan by President Ilham Aliyev calling Petroleum as ‘Gift from God’ laid bare the exasperation of the climate champions in attendance from 197 countries. While most developed countries stayed within the ambit of predictable postures, the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer unveiled an ambitious plan to slash emissions by 81 per cent in under 10 years, with little detail on implementation strategy. In a microcosm, it is akin to the accepted commitment of $1.3 trillion to mitigate climate crises and stay within the 1.5 C degrees global warming cap, with no clear path to reach the event horizon. Dousing the proverbial flame are newly minted serious references to geo-engineering, blue hydrogen, green carbon, low-carbon biogas, et al. The classic differences between petro-states and the rest of the nations is a complex give and take of dependencies and dialectics, as was evident at COP28 held in the UAE in 2023, chaired by Sultan Al Jaber, who heads the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.
With Trump Administration naming Colorado oil executive Chris Wright as the Energy Secretary, who will also be a Member of the Council of National Energy, the controversial climate clock will likely undergo a rewind or stop ticking altogether. Wright has often dismissed scientific papers and media references to climate crises, clean energy, fuel transitions et al, as alarmist propaganda. The Energy sector leadership would be largely guided by the Project 2025 led by the Heritage Foundation agenda of American Energy Dominance in the upcoming Trump era, against the backdrop of pulling out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Not far from reality is the prospect of the US withdrawing from the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) rescinding its previous commitments and future participation in global negotiations.\
Counter to popular narrative, a 2024 Reuters study revealed that the Oil & Natural Gas production rose to new heights during the Biden administration much to the frustration of climate advocates. The profits of publicly traded BP, Shell, Exxon, Chevron and TotalEnergies tipped $410 billion, jumping 100 per cent from the Trump 1.0 during the first three years of the Biden administration. The impending changes in Trump 2.0 could be anticipated in tandem with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by the duo of Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk. This is most likely going to impact EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). Ripple effects can be anticipated in programmes, regulations, standards, oversight and other policies that may see a fundamental shift. This could mean a full repeal of Biden’s Climate Bill or the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) adding an estimated 4 billion tonnes of carbon by 2030, as Republicans control both the Senate and the House. The implications are possibly the re-use of unspent funds towards drilling to cut back foreign dependencies and boosting national strategic petroleum and gas reserves.
With SpaceX launching Indian GSAT N2 satellite from Canaveral Space Force Station strengthening its collaboration with ISRO, Modi 3.0 administration is re-calculating reciprocity and robust partnership across multiple sectors including energy. The Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric (and Hybrid) Vehicles (FAME) is part of the Modi Green Mobility agenda. This has yielded in the launch of a Rs18,000 crore scheme for EV automobiles and Rs26,000 crore investment in chemical cells and batteries, with more to come. With India’s large consumer base belching upwards of 4 billion tonnes of carbon last year, growing population, increased toxic environmental pollutants, and inability to enforce regulations, the only logical way forward for survival, is gravitating to a green future.