The day after US President Donald Trump signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran in France’s glamorous Versailles Palace, Vice-President J.D. Vance delivered a slap to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the special friend of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This sudden insult to Netanyahu, who has long been joined at the hip with Trump and almost every US President for over three decades, should serve as a lesson for Modi.
India has much to be thankful for to Israel, especially its steadfast military and political support during the 1999 Kargil war and beyond. But it is time to exercise more prudence. Trump’s harsh ire stems from being manipulated by Netanyahu into a war in which the mighty American military machine has been chastened in an inglorious stalemate in just 108 days. This US discomfiture is a sharp demonstration of the hubris and entitlement of the majority of Israel’s people and leadership, whose repetitive violence seems to be propelled by perpetual fear without exploring ways to adapt to their neighbours for longer-term peace.
“Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment,” Vance was driven to declare. “If I were in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world. The other thing that I would say is that over the last three months, two-thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars.”
“The problem for Israel is not Donald J. Trump,” Vance added. “And anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the President of the US needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that the country is in”.
The White House has never dared to speak to Israel in such a blunt fashion. Vance’s admonition is appropriate because Israel’s endless wars against Lebanon’s Hezbollah, its decades-long oppression of Palestinians, including the utter devastation of Gaza and, now, its unwinnable assaults on Iran are fuelling trade chaos far beyond its region. They are sending millions around the world into hunger and denying vital energy and prosperity to entire nations.
The lesson for India is to be prudent in its increasing dependence on Israel for defence and technology needs. Generally, Tel Aviv is a rational actor. Still, its desperate self-defence in the face of hostile neighbours is turning it into a generator of problems for many in the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
All of this disruption cannot be placed at the doors of only its hard-right messianic Jewish politicians, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. The Israeli people are also responsible.
An Israeli TV poll after the MoU signature reported that 56 per cent of respondents said Netanyahu should have continued the war with Iran, while 57 per cent of government supporters and 62 per cent of its Opposition were against the ceasefire. In another poll, over 70 per cent thought the war with Iran would resume soon after the 60-day pause stipulated in the MoU.
About 79 per cent said Israel should continue the war in Lebanon. This is the central dispute with the White House. Vance insisted that Israel must respect the ongoing 60-day negotiations and stop its cross-border operations. President Trump reinforced this hours later, posting on social media that the US expects a “complete Ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel”. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has declared that Israel is not bound by the MoU and intends to maintain forces in a southern Lebanon ‘buffer zone’.
But Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, issued a written statement shifting the burden of compliance onto Washington. In effect, Iran is holding the entire agreement hostage over the status of southern Lebanon; it expects Trump to use his leverage to force a unilateral Israeli pull-back. Hezbollah Chief Naim Qassem has hailed the MoU as a ‘big victory’ for the Axis of Resistance against Israel, raising hackles in Tel Aviv and Washington.
Israel has placed nearly 20 per cent of Lebanon under active Israeli military rule and directly occupies about 6 per cent as a buffer zone in the south. It has displaced more than one million people towards the north and declared all Lebanese territory 40 km from Israel’s border as an active combat zone. Worse, it has given ‘no-return’ orders for all civilians displaced from the area. Should India value such a conquest-loving friend?
The author is an international affairs columnist for Business India. He can be contacted at brijkk@gmail.com