The 11 members represent 49.5 per cent of the global population, about 40 per cent of the global GDP and some 26 per cent of global trade

Rising BRICS influence raises alarms for EU amid NATO security uncertainties

Democratic India is the only country that could help European democracies

Published on:

24 Jun 2025, 9:16 am

The BRICS group of countries, of which India is a founding member, is turning into an arena of alarm for European members of the US-led 31-nation NATO military alliance and the 27-nation European Community, an economic association. The group started in 2009 as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) and was expanded in 2024-25 to include Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Indonesia and the UAE. Saudi Arabia is often listed as an 11th member but some reports say it has not yet fully accepted membership.

Another nine countries are official partners – Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda and Uzbekistan – while 44 countries are reported to be on the waiting list. The 11 members represent 49.5 per cent of the global population, about 40 per cent of the global GDP and some 26 per cent of global trade. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also thinks their combined GDP will reach 3.4 per cent in 2025, compared with the world average of 2.8 per cent.

Their rising economic clout has created fear that the Western grip on global trade, financial and economic flows since the 1950s will weaken seriously enough to create security vulnerabilities. This is particularly relevant for Europeans since US President Donald Trump’s aggressive Make America Great Again (MAGA) agenda already beleaguers them.

Europeans are also severely jolted by fears that American military security guarantees within NATO may disappear since Trump insists on defence budgets of 5 per cent of national income in Europe – up from an average of 1.5 per cent – to reduce the burden on American taxpayers. This is particularly alarming since Trump has threatened to stop US support for Ukraine’s defence, leaving the entire burden on Europeans although none have the financial or military capacities individually or collectively. A forthcoming NATO Summit will pull the mask off European pretensions to be powerful diplomatic players in world affairs without Washington’s protective military and economic umbrellas. So, the EU needs India as a friend.

Trump is forcing European governments to face the home truths they have long avoided but which have now been spotlighted by the Ukraine-Russia war. France, Germany, Britain and other West European governments still insist on continuing the war in the hope that Ukrainian sacrifices will inflict grave economic and military weakness on Russia, without causing costs other than money for other European nationalities.

Trump is shattering this fanciful hope, so many regimes are trying to disguise their shortcomings by diverting public attention through charges that BRICS is the rising threat to European prosperity. This is somewhat ridiculous, but EU governments are starting to lose their common-sense balance, because they are deeply entangled in an expensive Ukraine war that has sent cost of living through the roof for every member population.

Of particular concern is that BRICS countries are likely to dictate or give direction to the prices and supply of energy, food and key strategic minerals essential for the forward movement of modern economies

At the same time, they are being driven to their knees by Trump’s painful tariffs. They are all the more shocked because they had always seen themselves as especially privileged allies enjoying manifold economic favours in transatlantic trade and generous support for EU policies of coercing economic favours from poorer non-West countries.

India has become a cause of alarm in Europe in this context. European countries are unable to compete against China’s manufacturing skills and successful advanced technologies. They are now worried that India may soon present them with similar challenges. Worse, India is a leader of BRICS, which they allege is controlled by an authoritarian Russia that could wage war against them and authoritarian China, which threatens their influence over the global financial, trade and economic order.

The countries leading the IMF’s GDP growth projection for BRICS in 2025 are: Ethiopia (6.6 per cent), India (6.2 per cent), Indonesia (4.7 per cent), the United Arab Emirates (4 per cent) and China (4 per cent). In the 2025 international market share projections, China has 19.6 per cent of the global economy, followed by India’s 8.5 per cent, Russia’s 3.4 per cent, Indonesia’s 2.4 per cent and Brazil’s 2.3 per cent. Of particular concern is that BRICS countries are likely to dictate or give directions to the prices and supply of energy, food and key strategic minerals essential for the forward movement of modern economies.

Democratic India is the only country that could help European democracies, so almost the entire college of EU Commissioners and their president visited Delhi earlier this year. They are looking for favourable trade and investment deals and, more importantly, to tie India into relationships that prevent China from turning into a dominant anti-Western influence.

European worries cover several critical domains, including technologies like artificial intelligence, quantum computing and renewable energy; resources like critical minerals and trade routes; and institutional reform at the United Nations and the World Bank.