Passers-by and innkeepers, indeed!
Frighteningly, European leaders are inching towards a long new Cold War with Russia, and possibly a hot war, over Ukraine, despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s repeated calls for peace through negotiations. At the same time, Modi’s friend Benyamin Netanyahu is fighting to ensure Israel’s existence as a homeland for Jews through violent coercive methods that are already backfiring on him by greatly increasing instability in the region. These are worrisome trends that could directly affect India’s economic rise in Asian and global affairs.
For example, on 17 July, Russian spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned that any NATO country soldiers stationed inside Ukraine after a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire would become targets for Russian retaliation. Importantly, any long-range missiles, such as Germany’s powerful Taurus, fired into Russia from Ukraine could bring retaliation to military bases inside Germany because they cannot be targeted, fired and guided without German and NATO’s military assistance. She was reacting to reports that German Chancellor would supply the missiles without restrictions on their use for attacking deep inside Russian territory. “The language of ultimatums, blackmail and threats is unacceptable to us,” she added, referring to US President Donald Trump’s decision to ramp up arms shipments to Ukraine, while demanding that Russia should reach a cease-fire deal with Kyiv within 50 days or risk a 100 per cent tariff on its oil exports.
Trump said the tariffs would be buttressed by secondary sanctions of 100 per cent tariffs on any country that buys oil from Russia. That means all Indian exports would face a 100 per cent tariffs penalty in the US for sourcing oil from Russia.
The trend towards cold war is fuelled by the disorderly nature of Trump’s actions to promote peace between Russia and Ukraine, while also mitigating Israel’s multiple wars. Both initiatives are moving towards results opposite to his intentions. This situation is worsened by his whimsical methods of using coercive tariffs and financial penalties against all countries to please his domestic electorate. They are destabilising the global economy, instead of creating jobs and prosperity for Americans in a sustainable manner.
In particular, his methods of dealing with European allies in the NATO military alliance are causing so much panic among America’s long-standing loyal friends that they are plunging into incoherent thinking about their relationship with the Russia’s powerful Vladimir Putin, who leads their continent’s largest nuclear-armed military. Instead of motivating Putin towards peaceful and co-operative behaviour, European leaders are pushing him towards further belligerence. They are also forcing him to strengthen economic and military partnerships with China, North Korea, Iran and Afghanistan that are potentially dangerous for Europe and America.
The latest impetus for Putin’s discontent came from a July summit of 32 nations, led by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron. It emphasised the need to set up a ‘Multinational Force Ukraine’ to restore Ukraine’s combat capacity through weaponry, military training and logistics. Macron proposed plans for a likely Franco-British contingent deployed in Ukraine after a ceasefire that could rise to 50,000 troops. Zakharova categorically rejected this possibility insisting that Russia would never accept it as part of any cease fire or peace plan.
A separate July conference with 5,000 delegates from 70 countries and 40 international organisations focussed on funding post-war recovery in Ukraine included provision of military aid. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that a new $800 billion fund could be used to help ensure Ukraine’s military and technical capabilities. This has alarmed Moscow.
Meanwhile, Europe and America’s NATO ally, Türkiye is alienated by Netanyahu’s blood bath in Gaza, destruction in the occupied West Bank and territorial gains in Syria as well as repeated bombing. In his most outspoken reaction so far, on 17 July President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of using Syria’s Druze population as a pretext for aggression. “Israel is a lawless, rule-breaking, unprincipled, arrogant, spoiled and blood-thirsty terrorist state,” he declared. “Those who seek a secure future through oppression and massacres should never forget this: they are merely passers-by; we are the innkeepers. We are the ones who truly belong to this land.”
Reportedly, Erdogan is worried that Netanyahu will try to destabilise Syria, Türkiye and Iran by persuading Trump to back him militarily, while he tries to foment political unrest, even civil war, in those countries to become the region’s hegemon. He believes that Netanyahu and his supporters see instability as the chief pathway to weakening countries that might oppose Israeli oppression of Palestinians.