The United Nations, led by Antonio Guterres, is trying to emerge as a voice of common sense as the world sinks further into a long-term quicksand of wars, hunger, disease and turmoil. But this is a frustrating uphill struggle.
UN appeals are not getting enough support from the five nuclear powers, the US, Russia, China, Britain and France. Each seems determined to protect its privileges, which include a veto on all decisions of the UN Security Council established after World War II to manage war and peace.
Yet, Guterres has scored a remarkable achievement. On 22 September, a Summit meeting of world leaders adopted a history-making Pact for the Future that includes a Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations. It builds on a Guterres’ assertion that “We cannot create a future fit for our grandchildren with a system built by our grandparents.”
“Conflicts are raging and multiplying, from the Middle East to Ukraine and Sudan, with no end in sight.” Guterres said. “Our collective security system is threatened by geopolitical divides, nuclear posturing, and the development of new weapons and theatres of war. Resources that could bring opportunities and hope are invested in death and destruction.”
Despite frustrations, Guterres is in a hurry because his second and final term as UN Secretary-General ends on 31 December 2026. By that time, the US and Russia could be on the brink of a nuclear war over Ukraine, Israel could be facing a nuclear-armed Iran over its utter determination to suppress Palestinian demands for freedom and China may have become a formidable military power capable to defeating the US in a tussle over Taiwan’s right to exist as a Western-style democracy.
Contrary to many people’s expectations, the UN chief does not have weapons or wealth at his disposal to deter national leaders fuelling wars. He cannot prevent their wars from exploding into conflagrations that engulf the entire world, including India. All he has is a respected voice that he is using as loudly as possible and the credibility to convene leaders and experts to come together on issues vital for all the world’s people.
India is the only nuclear-armed Great Power standing outside the five veto powers. Its military strength and wealth are far less than them. But it still has moral standing and a voice capable of damping the warmongers among the five, especially if Prime Minister Narendra Modi uses it forcefully alongside Guterres.
There is no time to lose in trying to restore sanity to the almost insanely belligerent discourses of Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, Tel Aviv/ Jerusalem, Beijing and Tehran. It may be too late if the tide is not turned during the two remaining years of Guterres’ mandate. The next Secretary-General may not have his courage to face Washington, Moscow, Beijing and other powerful capitals.
The pact covers entirely new issues including some on which agreement has not been possible in decades. Illustrating the inadequacy of current international institutions, it includes peace and security, sustainable development, climate change, digital cooperation, human rights, gender, youth and future generations, as also the transformation of global governance. For many, such a broad agreement crowded with tough issues is unwieldy and will lead only to more talking shops and wildly larger demands from developing countries for additional funding to meet its requirements.
Still, it is remarkable that Guterres was able to score so many firsts. For instance, the pact contains a concrete commitment to Security Council reform that has defied negotiators since the 1960s, because any meaningful reform would reduce the five’s suffocating grip as veto-carrying members. It also includes steps to prevent the weaponisation and misuse of new technologies, such as lethal autonomous weapons.
India will almost certainly get a permanent seat on the Security Council, if governments follow through on their commitment, but it may not have veto power because others could still refuse to dilute their own influence. For his part, Guterres was blunt. “The UN Security Council is outdated and its authority is eroding. Unless its composition and working methods are reformed, it will eventually lose all credibility,” he noted.
Another first is a firm agreement to reform the international financial architecture, including the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organisation. It emerged when many of today’s UN members were under colonial rule and is not able to handle their current realities, including burgeoning debt, adverse climate impacts, and insufficient sustainable development.