The upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand will test the political management of both the BJP-led NDA, as well as the Congress-dominated INDIA alliance. With the BJP pulling off a miracle in Haryana by overcoming a strong anti-incumbency and besting the Congress, it will be presumptive to even guess who will win the two states.
The consolidation of the Other Backward Classes, a strategy that worked in its favour in Haryana against the consolidation of Jats in favour of the Congress, is what the BJP is aiming for in Jharkhand and Maharashtra. The Congress and its regional allies are at risk of being overdependent on Marathas in Maharashtra and tribals in Jharkhand.
The political landscape in Maharashtra has been reshaped thoroughly since the 2019 election. The Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) have split, with one faction each in alliance with the BJP and the Congress. The ruling Mahayuti, which the BJP is a part of, ended up with 17 of 48 seats in the 2024 general election, while the Maha Vikas Aghadi, of the Congress, the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Sena and the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP, won 29. Since then, the ruling alliance has taken several measures to gain more ground.
Indeed, the BJP has learnt from its experiences, particularly the Lok Sabha elections, where it was criticised for not countering the Opposition’s narratives effectively. Following the latest decision by the outgoing Eknath Shinde-led government hours before the election schedule was announced, a complete toll waiver for light motor vehicles was announced.
In Haryana, the BJP successfully countered the Congress’s narrative and freebies with its own targeted schemes. This approach can be replicated in Maharashtra, where the BJP-led Mahayuti can focus on highlighting the achievements of the Eknath Shinde government and the benefits of its schemes.
In September, the Shinde government launched a campaign to create awareness about 10 schemes of his Mahayuti government. The schemes were aimed at the youth, women, farmers and the elderly. Under the Ladki Bahin Kutumb Bhet Abhiyaan, the Shinde Sena aimed to reach out to more than 10 million families in the state. The Ladli Behen scheme is being seen as an effective tool in this regard.
BJP’s strategy well in place
The Mahayuti government has also announced the Diwali Bonus under the Ladli Behen. The scheme, which tasted success in Madhya Pradesh under Shivraj Singh Chouhan, covers 93,000 beneficiaries in the state.
Chastened by the Haryana election results, the Congress has toned down its hype in Maharashtra. It has appointed senior leaders to oversee the campaign in various regions of the State. In Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the BJP has had its strategy in place well in time, overseen by veterans who command authority.
The JMM-led ruling alliance in Jharkhand, which the Congress is a part of, and the Mahayuti are betting on women voters to ensure another term. Both governments have introduced cash dole schemes for women. In Jharkhand, the BJP campaign is built on corruption allegations against State Chief Minister Hemant Soren as well as demographic shifts which the party attributes to the alleged entry of people from Bangladesh. Soren accuses the BJP of misusing Central investigating agencies to implicate him. He is dependent on tribal consolidation, but that alone is not sufficient. Nearly three-fourths of the state’s population are non-tribal, and the BJP’s focus is on consolidating the Hindus among them. The tribal population is shrinking, largely due to inter-state migration.
A major drama is unfolding in Jharkhand over wooing women voters. The ruling coalition and the Opposition BJP in Jharkhand are taking measures and countermeasures, promising the electorate – including 12.6 million women – direct cash transfer. It first started in August when Soren started Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman
Yojana (MMSY), wherein the government started giving Rs1,000 to all underprivileged women in 18-50 age group. The state government has so far given three instalments to the beneficiaries.
The BJP, which came out with its Panchpran (five resolutions) recently, has promised DBT of Rs2,100 per month to all underprivileged women in the state from the first month of coming to power in the state. Following the BJP’s Panchpran, the JMM has alleged that the Election Commission is ‘sleeping’, while the BJP is flouting the rules.
The ruling coalition has now submitted a memorandum to the state’s Chief Electoral Officer seeking permission to implement the ‘JMM Samman Yojana’ in the state. Under the scheme, the party plans to transfer Rs2,500 per month to underprivileged women.
Whether the sops will sway the electorate in the two states and
determine the outcome now remains to be seen.