India and Canada appeared headed for an even frostier season in ties after the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) pared down the number of Canadian diplomats posted in India from 62 to 21. New Delhi had made its demand to equalise the numbers in each other’s missions known last month, in the aftermath of the Trudeau government’s allegations that Indian agents had a role in the killing of Khalistani activist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian national.
Students, tourists and businesspersons are expected to suffer as a result of this decision. A record 226,450 Indian students went to study in Canada last year, according to data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, making them the largest international student cohort, far ahead of China, in second place with 51,165 students. Indian students accounted for 41 per cent of the 551,405 students from 184 countries who entered Canada in 2022. Indeed, anxious parents of Indian students in Canada were at tenterhooks after bilateral relations dived to an all-time low. India issued an advisory for its nationals and students in Canada, urging them to exercise utmost caution in view of the deteriorating security environment there.
There was hope that quiet diplomacy would be at work to repair ties. However, Canada continues to hold, without proffering proof, that India must co-operate in its investigations against unnamed Indian officials, India too is standing by measures it has taken in reprisal: last month, after the tit-for-tat expulsions of their respective diplomats from security agencies, the Modi government suspended visas for all Canadians, and demanded the downsizing of Canadian diplomatic strength.
Last fortnight, India issued an ultimatum for the removal of two-thirds of those numbers with a deadline of 31 October – after which India would unilaterally withdraw diplomatic immunity. As a result, Canada’s Foreign Ministry flew out 41 of its diplomats and their families, calling India’s demand a violation of international law including the Vienna Convention. The MEA has retorted that the convention’s Article 11.1 does authorise India to ‘require that the size of a mission be kept within limits’. Canada has also conveyed that, with staffing shortages now, consulate ‘in-person’ visa services would no longer be provided. The Canadian immigration minister has added that India’s moves would not deter Canada’s prosecution in the Nijjar case.
The developments indicate that if there had been any diplomatic efforts to defuse the situation in the past month, they have been fruitless. Apart from the Modi-Trudeau and National Security Adviser meetings that had discussed the Nijjar case, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar had met Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly in the US on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
None of those appears to have turned the trajectory of events; attempts by Canada’s ‘Five Eyes’ Allies to mediate have not worked either. While the allies have supported Canada’s claims, they have also shored up their ties with India, with possible visits by the British, US and Australian leaders that will assure New Delhi. With diplomatic options exhausted for now, it is hoped a period of reflection will bring fresh counsel on how to break the logjam.
It is important to remember this is one moment in a relationship that spans decades and is built upon strong connection between our two people
It is not that both sides do not realise the gravity of the situation. During her speech at the Economic Club of Canada, Melanie Joly said, “It is important to remember this is one moment in a relationship that spans decades and is built upon strong connection between our two people."
She said the relationship was ‘facing a difficult moment’. Joly's words seemed to have echoed what Jaishankar had said few days ago that the relations between India and Canada are going through a difficult phase. Jaishankar had said the relationship between India and Canada right now is going through a difficult phase, adding that India has problems with certain segment of Canadian politics.
However, observers saw a glimmer of hope in the statement of India’s High Commissioner to Canada Sanjay Kumar Verma that there could be a possibility of some relaxation for Canadian residents if the security environment for Indian diplomats and consular workers stationed in Canada improves.
These observers believe that though tensions over Sikh separatism have long dogged bilateral ties, people-to-people relations have remained robust: Bilateral trade expanded by 57 per cent between 2021 and 2022, and tens of thousands of Indian tourists visit Canada annually. Besides, Canada hosts more students from India than any other country. Such exchanges, they feel, require a sound visa regime.