The return of Devendra Fadnavis as chief minister of Maharashtra marks a remarkable comeback in politics. After a faction of Shiv Sena revolted against Udhav Thackeray and brought down his coalition government, Fadnavis was forced by the BJP’s national leadership to play second fiddle, even though his party had more number of MLAs than the breakaway Eknath Shinde group. He swallowed his pride and agreed to be one of the two deputy chief ministers, the other being Ajit Pawar, who too had revolted against his uncle, the once redoubtable Sharad Pawar.
Clearly, Shinde and Pawar have now accepted the new reality of the dominance of the BJP. Both will serve under Fadnavis as deputy CMs.
Fadnavis has played a central role in the ascent of his party in recent years, crafting its strategy and leading from the front. He has grown in strength and stature. As the chief minister of a state with many resources, he is well-placed to climb new heights within the BJP, but has his task cut out.
He will have to balance the many conflicting community and economic interests in the state and within the BJP, while simultaneously delivering good governance to sustain and enhance his standing. There is talk within the BJP circles that, if he does well, he could even emerge as a possible successor to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Before that, however, his government will have to face up to other challenging realities. Once the frontrunner in the country in terms of per capita income, GDP growth and contribution to the India story, Maharashtra has slid and slowed down.
The slackening has sharpened the palpable agricultural distress in backward areas like Vidarbha in a state of striking regional inequalities. The agricultural sector requires immediate and long-term interventions in terms of investment and price management. The coalition has promised a farm loan waiver, which may be necessary, but can only provide temporary relief.
In a sea of troubles
The slackening of development shows up in the high unemployment figures in both urban and rural areas, a widening fiscal deficit, lower capex and rising revenue spending. Maharashtra’s downturn is framed, also, in the anxieties stoked by the migration of some high-profile industrial projects to neighbouring Gujarat.
Against this backdrop, the new government will have to tread a tightrope carefully – be it on the issue of Maratha reservation or the state’s welfare schemes. For instance, the Ladki Bahin Yojana, a cash transfer of Rs1,500 per month to women between
21 to 65 years of age, whose annual family income is less than Rs2.5 lakh, is said to have been one of the factors behind the Mahayuti government’s thumping win. Among its many poll promises, the Mahayuti’s promise of increasing the scheme amount to Rs2,100 figured prominently. The onus will be on the Fadnavis government to balance and align its social welfare goals with fiscal prudence and responsibility in a strained economy.
Indeed, the state will have to continue to attract investment and launch projects, as well as speed up ongoing ones. Maharashtra attracts migrants and its urban centres require constant upgrades.
Another tough nut that Fadnavis will have to crack is the demand for caste-based quotas. The new government will also have to ensure that its 10 per cent ring-fenced quota for Marathas stands the test in courts. The Mahayuti, especially the BJP, will be under pressure to accommodate the demands of the OBC Dhangars (shepherds) for inclusion in the Scheduled Tribes category, something opposed by the tribal communities. Indeed, the BJP’s promise to grant ST category quota to the Dhangars may come back to haunt it. The government’s move to set the sub-categorisation of the Scheduled Castes in motion may also meet resistance from Buddhist Dalits.
The winning BJP campaign in Maharashtra featured polarising slogans, one of them being ek hain toh safe hain (we are safe only if we are one). His critics say that Fadnavis was seen to stir the communal pot enthusiastically. As the head of a government with a large mandate and as a leader who knows better, he must now send a message that he will reach out and include, not just those who voted for the Mahayuti, but also those who did not.
Can Fadnavis and his fellow partners be the architects of Maharashtra’s progress by judiciously handling all these challenges? This remains to be seen.