The recent state elections in four states and Puducherry threw up some surprises.
The first was the clean sweep the BJP had in West Bengal. While the 27 lakh voter deletions must have benefited the BJP somewhat, even without the deletions, the BJP would have won handsomely. While many expected Mamata’s TMC to lose, few believed that the BJP sweep would be so strong.
In Tamil Nadu, Vijay’s TVK swept aside both the ruling DMK and its main rival, the AIADMK. Nobody could imagine that the brand-new party, of a political newbie, which didn’t spend much on media and traditional rallies stuffed with bused-in crowds, would perform so strongly. Its reliance on social media and viral spreads has opened a new chapter in India’s electoral democracy. Other parties, small and big, are already studying this phenomenon.
In Keralam, which has had a tradition of changing governments at each election (the two terms of the LDF were an exceptional result 5 years earlier), many expected the LDF to lose. But few saw the extent of the UDF victory.
The result in Assam was not unexpected and did not cause any surprises. Nor did the vote in Puducherry.
Elections always throw up some issues. In these elections, there are two notable issues that need closer examination. And we need to see if these two issues represent new trends in Indian politics.
In Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Keralam, all the winning parties stuck to the old formula of increasing freebies, but promising a break from the past and also promising change. The extent of the desire for change is what is notable. In several of our neighbouring countries, and elsewhere the youth have been pushing for, and bringing about radical change. One only has to look at Bangladesh and Nepal as the two most recent examples. It would be unrealistic not to expect the youth and the hunger for change not to impact India and our political system. All of us ought to welcome this restlessness of the youth pushing for change, and shaking up the old set ways of the established political parties.
The other major issue is the extent of the freebies offered. While all the parties indulged in offering voters freebies, and the winning parties in a way matched, or exceeded the freebies being offered, the question that arises, is whether several of the states have reached or exceeded the freebies that can be afforded, without setting back and stunting the growth of their own regions, which has seriously deleterious long-term impacts on the states themselves.
While we have a federal structure, the Centre has continuously expanded its financial and legal remit, leaving all the states totally subordinate, but with large responsibilities, in education, health and employment and welfare. In this time’s cover story, we look at the economic realities and point out that freebies have reached a point where they can seriously damage the growth prospects of the states and push them into a downward growth cycle.
Both these issues will soon be at the centre of economic and political discourse.