India imports nearly 88 per cent of its crude oil requirement at present largely from Russia, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. During June this year, imports had touched a record 4.93 million barrels per day (mbd), out of which nearly 55 per cent had come from Russia.
Crude oil imports have progressively increased during the past few years, due to an increase in energy demand and industrial growth. Crude imports have increased from 74 million tonnes in 1990 to over 232 million tonnes in 2024. India sources crude oil from nearly 40 countries. Now, the question is: with India dependent on crude imports even for domestic consumption, will the threat of tariffs by the US reduce its oil imports from Russia?
“India’s crude imports have averaged about 5.3 mbd in September, up roughly 600 thousand barrels per day (kbd) month on month and 700 kbd year on year, as refinery maintenance eases and crude runs remain strong,” explained Sumit Ritolia, senior manager, modelling, Kpler (a subscription-based data and analytics platform that provides real-time market intelligence, cargo tracking and maritime analytics for global commodities and shipping markets), while talking to Business India. “The increase is being driven both by the need to sustain healthy domestic fuel demand and by export-oriented refiners running at high rates to take advantage of exceptionally strong international product margins and a tight global products market. Within the crude mix, Russian arrivals have eased to about 1.75 mbd, the lowest since April. Russian crude continues to face pressure from Washington, which has encouraged refiners to keep their sourcing options diversified”. However, they do not see the latest decline as India moving away from Russian barrels altogether, he added. With Brent crude costing over $108 per barrel and with no visible peace in sight in West Asia, Russia is amongst the only stable supply options for India.
India’s imports of crude from Russia were a mere 2 per cent before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began in February 2022. When the world faced an energy crisis, India increased its imports from Russia, as it was getting oil at a discount. Gradually, the imports began to increase, despite the threat of sanctions. Today, India imports over 50 per cent of its crude requirement from Russia.
“India remains firmly committed to ensuring energy security for its 1.4 billion people through diversified sourcing and evolving market dynamics,” says Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson, ministry for external affairs. “We are closely monitoring the US sanctions”.
Exercise caution
Russia remains a central part of India’s crude import basket at present. “Economics, availability and refinery compatibility will continue to determine buying,” Ritolia explained. “However, we would expect the Indian oil sector to exercise caution as soon as any US unilateral punitive measures are announced toward India. The government of India and market players are likely to assess the global market situation, the US’ actual efforts to enforce those measures and options to obtain waivers or challenge them. During that assessment period, we could expect to see a decline in volumes (but not a halt) of Russian crude going into India – similar to what happened last year in January and February”. African and Venezuelan barrels have also contributed to the diversification of India’s crude imports.
The biggest offset has come from the Middle East, with imports rising to about 3 mbd in September, broadly returning to pre-West Asia war levels. “The recovery has been supported by higher flows from Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, alongside improving crude movements through the Strait of Hormuz,” informs Ritolia. “STS (ship-to-ship) transfers and other logistical arrangements have helped facilitate these flows, allowing Indian refiners to rebuild Middle Eastern purchases as regional supply availability improves”.
Threat of sanctions
Recently, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia & Iran Act of 2026 was passed by the US Congress, which gave the US President the power to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on top importers of Russian energy like India. The MEA has stated that it has apprised Washington of the impact such laws could have on bilateral ties and global markets.
“Russia’s overland pipelines elude EU and US sanctions,” Ranjan Tandon, Petroleum Expert, told Business India. “The Druzhba, built around the time of OPEC’s formation, is one of the longest to provide oil to Europe. The ESPO pipeline transports Siberian crude to Russia’s Pacific coast for Asian markets, with a branch providing direct supplies to Chinese refineries. Moscow could explore a similar pipeline for Indian buyers and draw curtains on its quota-centric relationship with OPEC”.
The Druzhba pipeline holds a unique status because it received temporary exemptions from the European Union’s 2022 ban on Russian oil imports, enabling landlocked countries like Hungary and Slovakia to receive crude. Hungary and Slovakia used their EU veto powers to block sanctions packages and financial aid over Druzhba supply.
“Sanctions are a realignment of supply chains for developed countries,” trade analyst Vijay K. Mishra said. “It has little impact on their energy requirements. The world should not be divided on economic basis as the developing countries face challenges with food security and energy inflation when such sanctions are imposed”.
India sources crude from nearly 40 countries – a mix of OPEC and non-OPEC producers. The top suppliers include Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the US, Nigeria and other West African countries. Also in the list are countries like Brazil and Venezuela.
India’s strategy for oil imports needs to include diversification, supply security and refinery compatibility. India also has to ensure that imports are maintained, despite tensions in the Middle East and potential disruptions at chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
Strategic reserves
Also, there is an urgent need to increase storage capacity. At present, it has built strategic petroleum reserves capable of sustaining nearly 75 days of consumption, with major sites at Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru and Padur and plans to expand the capacity to 90 days. Refiners in India at present secure cargoes for one or two months in advance, which ensures a stable supply.
Discounted Russian crude helped India after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, ensuring steady supply. “Russian oil imports from India demonstrate well-established oil market trading ties between the two nations,” Ritolia observed. “Russia has been a net exporter of crude oil since the early 2000s. The recent shift to become a product importer is the result of the attacks and damage its refineries suffered from Ukraine, which caused local shortages of high-octane gasoline. However, Russia has substituted a large part of the lost gasoline production volume by relaxing domestic motor fuel quality standards and using rail imports from neighbouring countries. Seaborne imports (which began in July this year) represent only 4 per cent of domestic demand for those products in the third quarter of 2026. These exports do not represent a significant outlet for Indian oil product exports overall”.
India’s crude oil imports are critical to its energy security, with a well-diversified supplier base spanning Russia, the Middle East, the US and Africa. India continues to balance cost, reliability and geopolitical risk, while investing in storage and refining infrastructure to meet growing domestic demand. Despite global market fluctuations, India’s proactive procurement and diversification strategies ensure robust and resilient crude oil inflows.
While India will continue Russian crude oil imports, Russia’s export availability has shrunk, with shipments from Black Sea port of Novorossiysk down by half as Ukrainian drone attacks have repeatedly suspended loadings. The seasonal Arctic Northern Sea Route has given Russian crude a secure path to China, while shipments to India via the Red Sea are facing security risks linked to Yemen’s Houthis.