With Donald Trump and Xi Jinping pulling out of the COP30 summit in Brazil and Narendra Modi also giving it a miss, it is highly debatable if anything substantial will come out of it. There is no talk of reviving the Paris Agreement to keep emissions down to net-zero and limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Where does that leave India? As rains wreaked havoc across the country this monsoon, it was clear that climate change is now real and happening. Earlier, heat waves again lashed the country even before the onset of peak summer. Extreme weather events are causing loss of life, displacement, soil erosion and economic damage. The effects are felt disproportionately by the vulnerable populations.
On the eve of World Environment Day early this year, Bhupender Yadav, Union environment minister, articulated a subtle shift in India’s stand on climate change negotiations in the midst of geopolitical disruptions. He said that India’s climate change strategy must be aligned with the goal of Viksit Bharat in 2047, which he defined as a Green Bharat – a climate-resilient country. Unlike Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change a ‘hoax’, declining to send any officials to the summit, making the US one of just four countries not represented, alongside Afghanistan, Myanmar and San Marino, India will be sticking to its stand that economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing countries. Still, India will continue to work responsibly with the world, as the voice of the global south, in meeting whatever challenges emerge on the way to a greener tomorrow.
Yadav is now leading the Indian delegation at COP30 in Brazil, where he will now tout India’s first adaptation (making communities, people and livelihoods climate-proof) strategy. The strategy will represent a major step forward in aligning adaptation planning with India’s national development priorities and global climate commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement. Its core objective is to protect lives, ecosystems, and livelihoods by supporting understanding of current and future climate risks and vulnerabilities; identifying medium- and long-term priorities for climate adaptation; and establishing systems, policies, measures and capacities to ensure strengthened adaptation planning, budgeting and implementation. But how much of it is translated into reality and how much is simply hot air remains to be seen.
As regards expectations from COP30, India’s demands would be as articulated in Article 4.7 of the UNFCCC – that no proposed strategies should foreclose the possibilities of accelerated social and economic development for developing countries; and that the principle of CBDR-RC (common but differentiated responsibilities – respective capabilities) should be reinforced. India will strive to achieve several outcomes from the forthcoming COP30. On mitigation, uncompensated climate change mitigation by developing countries would slow down their economic growth. Many required technologies based on resource endowments of developing countries do not yet exist, or are too expensive. The availability of green technologies needs to be enabled by developed countries.
The COP29 decision on finance (new collective quantified goal on finance, as it is called in Paris Agreement parlance) dilutes the previous obligation and responsibility of developed countries. Parties to provide financial resources to developing countries. The decision has not addressed the important factor – the ‘provision of funds’, which needs to be addressed. The Finance Roadmap must include developed countries’ obligation to provide financial resources to assist developing countries. India’s Initial Adaptation Communication to the UNFCCC had estimated a cumulative adaptation expenditure of Rs56.68 lakh crore (about $680 billion) under a business-as-usual scenario by 2030. Factoring in climate-induced damages and developmental needs, this could rise to Rs72 lakh crore ($864 billion).
Ultimately, decision-making within the UNFCCC is based on consensus, with every decision at the COP adopted unanimously. Negotiations must be transparent, inclusive and driven by the parties involved. Hope lies in the fact that, while governments dither, the private sector by and large is sticking to the goal of net-zero. Many Indian corporate houses have internalised decarbonisation goals to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 or earlier. These companies include Mahindra & Mahindra, Aditya Birla group, JSW group, Adani Transmission, Vedanta and Dalmia Cement. By 2035, Reliance Industries wants to be net zero. That’s the upside.