In a year when the economic growth seems to have maintained a better-than-expected trajectory (early estimates suggest the GDP growth was close to 8 per cent during April-September) – no less a rarity when the global economic situation is quite fluid – the trends from Indian agrarian fields too have been quite positive. The growth of about 4.5 per cent in the previous fiscal (2024-25) appears to have subtly spilt over the current financial year too, as preliminary estimates suggest.
But, production spike apart, when it comes to agriculture, the most talked about issue this year has been how India will deal with the pressure from the US (as a part of the new bilateral trade deal) to free its market for commodities like corn, soybean, cotton, almonds, dairy and ethanol. While the deal was being thrashed out in the second half between the two countries, the buzz was strong that the US was pushing hard for unlimited access for these commodities. Incidentally, the negotiation period coincided with a crash in prices of some of these commodities in the domestic market, primarily due to cyclical reasons.
But it was also cited as an impact of nervousness gripping the market, following the US’ insistence. Sectoral stakeholders, including farmer leaders, had also issued oblique warning notes that any compromise on this front may have repercussions. And the top-rung government functionaries were repeatedly assuring in public that the government has no such intent. “The prime minister has said no pact will take place at the cost of farmers,” Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Union minister for agriculture, had assured in a press conference in September. “Their interest will be protected.”
Coming back to the regular trends, the signals from India’s hinterland vis-à-vis production and economic activities have been quite positive. In November, when the government released the final production estimates for 2024-25, some of the indices highlighted reaching a new peak. The foodgrain production climbed to 357.73 million tonnes – a hefty increase over 332.3 million tonnes registered in the previous fiscal. The record-breaking spike in rice production has continued unabated, as it touched a new high of 150.19 million tonnes, 12.36 million tonnes higher than last year’s 137.83 million tonnes.
Positive growth
Wheat too registered record growth, rising to 117.95 million tonnes – an increase of 4.65 million tonnes over last year’s 113.29 million tonnes. Moong, soybean, maize and millet also recorded modest positive growth. Furthermore, oilseed output during 2024-25 has been estimated at a record 42.99 million tonnes, which is 3.32 million tonnes higher than the 39.67 million tonnes produced in 2023-24. The increase is driven by record groundnut and soybean output, estimated at 11.94 million tonnes and 15.27 million tonnes respectively.
Meanwhile, horticulture – a critical pillar of Indian agriculture – is estimated to have delivered a robust output of 369 million tonnes in 2024-25 (fruits up by over 5 per cent at 118 million tonnes and vegetables up to 215 million tonnes output, marking annual growth of 4 per cent). With a normal monsoon, the government is expecting this uptick trend in agriculture to continue in 2025-26 and register an increment of 5-10 million tonnes in the total output in food grain production.
Apart from the production uptick, developments in agriculture this year also showed that the government is trying to bring in a more focused and micro approach to help specific segments of India’s huge sector. For instance, the government was seen infusing a new life in the ‘lab to land’ programme, wherein 16,000 scientists were engaged to visit farms in different parts of the country and help farmers with their knowledge and other possible scientific support. The government unveiled PM Dhan Dhaanya Krishi Yojna, meant to provide support to farmers in 100 low-productivity districts. The outlay for the scheme is a staggering Rs35,440 crore.
Another dedicated mission to perk up pulses production (India’s deficit in domestic pulse availability is a long-pending issue) – Dalhan Atmanirbharta Mission – was unveiled in August for a period of six years, and an allocation of Rs11,440 crore has been earmarked for it.