Pakistan’s Field Marshall Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif are basking in the glory of global headlines, not realising that US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) are setting them up as fall guys for their upcoming failure to inflict defeat on Iran’s surprisingly innovative military. In India, Opposition critics are contriving headlines by haranguing Prime Minister Narendra Modi for being left behind in the tug-of-war between Islamabad and Delhi for diplomatic prominence.
But egg on the face awaits them as Trump tries to wriggle out of the disastrous trap he has set for himself in blockading the Strait of Hormuz. Worse still, he is letting Israel’s Benyamin Netanyahu turn South Lebanon into another wasteland like the 58 per cent of Gaza retained by Israel.
The erratic Trump might suddenly show brilliance by announcing that his clumsy war with Iran could cause too much humanitarian damage to the Gulf and Global South and start drawing down America’s military unilaterally. That could turn him into a great global statesman and set the world on the path to widespread prosperity and peace. But prominent US analysts think the Zionist lobby in America is too powerful for him to defy Netanyahu.
The US Congress and Senate also seem too spineless to face down that lobby, or the numerous Zionist billionaires and the fervent Christian Zionist supporters of Israel. Consequently, Trump, frustrated by his failure to obtain a surrender from Iran’s asymmetric warfare, is unlikely to withdraw without a crippling bombardment of Iran’s people to destroy their lives for decades. Trump has not repeated his threat to destroy Iran as a civilisation, but Israeli defence minister Israel Katz said on 23 April that his country was awaiting a green light from Trump to return Iran to ‘the Stone Age’.
Munir and Sharif should squeeze whatever prominence they can in the few glory days left to them because Trump is unlikely to spare them the humiliation of being scapegoated when he pulls a fig leaf over his own ‘the emperor is without clothes’ nudity. Current prospects are for another ignominious American retreat from a poorly executed war of choice, as in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
India’s foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has done well not to repeat his inelegant branding of Munir and Sharif as dalals, because they face a worse come-down from their current high. But some causes of concern remain. MBS seems to have invoked his recent mutual defence pact with Munir and shamed Islamabad into stationing China-designed Pakistani fighter jets on Saudi soil alongside several thousand Pakistani troops. This is surprising because their protection is likely to be much less of a deterrent for Iranian missiles and drones than the American might stationed earlier on those same bases. Perhaps, they have been imported as a kind of Praetorian Guard for the Saudi royal family in case of need, but it is hard to believe that the mercenary Pakistanis will be more loyal to the royals than the trusted tribal elite fighters.
The erratic Trump might suddenly show brilliance by announcing that his clumsy war with Iran could cause too much humanitarian damage to the Gulf and Global South and start drawing down America’s military unilaterally
Meanwhile, Trump’s impatience with the war is evident in his increasingly erratic Truth Social posts and near-constant assertions that the war is already over. “The terrorists made a bet that President Trump would be like many of his predecessors – that he would just talk and he would refuse to enforce his clear red lines, but that has proven to be a catastrophic error in judgement,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt declared defiantly on 4 March. “President Trump does not bluff.”
Regardless, under the US War Powers Resolution of 1973, Trump cannot continue the war after 1 May without authorisation from Congress. He could award himself a 30-day extension that would impose some severe restrictions, but he cannot go beyond 1 June. Seeking authorisation for another potentially forever war just months ahead of November’s mid-term elections could be politically disastrous for him since he was elected to definitively end America’s wars. So, the hot air in Munir and Sharif’s Montgolfier balloon could descend precipitously.
That’s when Modi should step up. An American withdrawal would open pathways for chaos because Israel will use its devastating Mossad to plunge Iran into endless civil wars, especially if Trump executes his ill-tempered bombardment. Netanyahu might even threaten a nuclear strike to fulfil Katz’s pledge of returning Iran to the Stone Age.
The stakes are unprecedented and massive. Only Modi has whatever vestiges of trust remain among the region’s various war mongers, including some positive influence over Netanyahu.