Be it UHT milk or paneer or khakhra or chapati, or roti, there is good news for everyone in this festive season. Brands like Amul, Mother Dairy, Nandini, Aavin, and companies like Heritage Foods and Hatsun are all expected to benefit in terms of an increase in sales and distribution.
In some cases, the GST rates have come down from 5 per cent to nil, while in some other cases, the fall is from 18 per cent to nil. This will definitely be a huge boost for consumption and, that too, during the festive season, with Dassera and Diwali approaching, followed by Christmas and New Year.
This boost to consumption, starting from the first day of Navratri, on 22 September 2025, will lead to a huge surge in sales and a tremendous push to the economy. It is wide and would cover the entire population, especially for grocery and essential items.
Hence, I call this series of consumption ‘grow series’, which incidentally also rhymes with groceries. During the festive season, brands and marketers look for a boost in sales and consumption. While that is normal every year, this year, with the rationalisation of GST rates, it would be special.
Whether it be chocolates or ice cream or coffee, tea, cornflakes, pastries, cakes, or biscuits, all will see their consumption boosted, because these categories will also benefit from the GST rates being brought down from 18 per cent to 5 per cent. Brands like Cadbury, KitKat, Baskin-Robbins, Nescafé, Bru, Tata Tea, Britannia, Monginis, Parle, ITC Sunfeast, Kellogg’s and many other items in the GST categories have come down in price in the grocery basket, which would result in higher sales. It does not stop here.
Groceries are an important component of the household consumption basket in Indian families. So, with the GST brought down from 12 per cent to 5 per cent on products and brands in the categories of butter, ghee, dairy spreads, and cheese, consumers can all have a wide smile on their faces.
The ‘Grow Series’, as I call groceries in this festive season, will cater to everyday consumption items and lead to a lot of savings in the household budget. Whether it be nuts or dry fruits, including almonds, pistachios, ground nuts, and cashew nuts, consumers will go nuts with these price cuts and enjoy abundant happiness in their homes.
Indulgence items like sugar-boiled confectionery would also benefit. And, those who love pasta, macaroni, instant noodles, and extruded snacks can have all these at a lower price, because of the reduction in GST from 12 per cent to 5 per cent.
Items like namkeen, bhujia, and mixture, both pre-packaged and labelled, would find it more affordable, thus increasing consumption and reducing expenditure. Here, brands like Haldiram, Bikaji, Bingo, Yipee, Maggi, and many more would get a better taste of sales in this festive season.
As we move further and explore the rest of the ‘grow series’ or groceries, we find that the benefit of GST coming down from 12 per cent to 5 per cent has been extended to jams, fruit jellies, sauces, mayonnaise, and salad dressings too. Here, Hindustan Unilever would be a major beneficiary, along with other FMCG companies like Nestlé, Tata, Godrej, Parle Agro, etc.
In beverages, fruit/vegetable juices, as also tender coconut water (in pre-packaged and labelled form) would benefit. Brands like Frooti, Tropicana and Real would all get a boost in consumption due to affordability.
India is the largest producer of milk and dairy products. Milk beverages have also seen their GST coming down from 12 per cent to 5 per cent.
The reason I am emphasising on groceries having a positive effect on the Indian household is that almost 24 per cent of the daily consumption and household expenditure is covered by groceries. With these changes in GST, groceries have now turned ‘Grow Series’ in the consumption basket trend.
While other consumer products also have benefited substantially from GST coming down to 5 per cent from 18 per cent – such as hair oil, shampoo, toothpaste, talcum powder, toilet soap, bar, toothbrushes, shaving cream and shaving lotion – groceries, are the ones which would make a huge impact on the household expenditure, with toiletries, also bringing in lots of benefits.
Companies like Colgate, Marico, Procter & Gamble, HUL, Anchor and many others, which offer daily essential items, definitely benefit in terms of their sales and their consumption increasing, while stationery companies like Navneet would also benefit, apart from large companies like ITC, which have stationery divisions.
Consumption expenditure would also come down due to certain other household items, apart from groceries, also becoming affordable, because of the GST coming down from 12 per cent to 5 per cent. These items include feeding bottles and nipples, napkins for babies, and clinical diapers.
Benefits would also go to handbags and shopping bags made of cotton and jute. A fall in prices of consumer durables will have a positive impact on household expenditure. Other items indirectly related to groceries and that are beneficiaries include tableware and kitchenware made of iron, steel, and copper.
A fall in the prices of consumer durables will have a positive impact on household expenditure
All in all, the consumer household expenditure, especially groceries, would go down and the implications would lead to a substantial ‘grow series’ in terms of growth in sales of companies in these sectors.
Now, let us look at the implications of these changes. Firstly, there would be an increase in affordability, leading to relief for the end consumer and the household. Secondly, there would be an increase in consumption, thereby helping companies in the sectors to increase their top line and also, because of economies of scale, increase the bottom line. Not only will existing customers consume more, but new consumers will also be attracted, who were so far shying away from purchasing and consuming these grocery items.
Thirdly, the width and depth of consumption would lead to an increase in the width and depth of distribution across town class and across retail channels. Fourthly, the company producing and selling groceries and other household items, as mentioned above, would have their top lines and bottom lines boosted, resulting in growth in the value and valuation, leading to their market share increasing.
Fifthly, tangibly and intangibly, there would be an increase in household confidence and happiness, leading to a ‘feel good’ factor, which would further give a boost to the economy.
Thus, these measures are going to definitely lead to a ‘grow series’ of sales and profit because almost one-fourth of household consumption is composed of groceries, which will get a huge boost.
So, companies and marketers, are you going to take advantage of this bonanza during the festival season, or are you going to allow it to slip away while you sleep? Wake up and make the most of the ‘grow series’ through the advantage given to groceries!