The European Union (EU) is turning into the ‘sick man’ of the globe because of profound internal dissension. It could drag India down with it by making promises and entering into agreements that it is too weak to fulfil – both at the collective EU level and as individual nations, including France, Germany, Britain and Italy.
Disturbingly and tragically, European decline is occurring in the midst of world-altering wars in Ukraine, the Gulf, the US, Iran and Israel, alongside commercial wars with China. A main cause of their prolongation and the lack of European peace-making is the self-imposed blindness of EU leaders to see the destructive implications for their own countries and the Global South, including India, of their refusal to even talk to Russia’s Vladimir Putin or provide genuine support to the US President Donald Trump’s overtures to him and to Iran.
A weakened and isolated Europe has made Brussels increasingly desperate to court India as a trusted global counterweight to Trump's unpredictable trade policies and China’s formidable threats to European economic, business, financial and political cohesion. India is likely to remain stable and trustworthy because of its strong internal institutions, regardless of whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi can face down the current street protests. But the EU and most European countries seem too torn by dissension in their internal politics to be reliable partners for India.
The India-European Union Free Trade Agreement (FTA), often called the mother of all deals, could be the chief casualty of the gridlocked and politically fractured Europe. Piyush Goyal, Trade Minister, India, has announced on 22 October 2026 that the deal could become operational within four to five months of formal signing. It is highly likely to be signed on 16 December 2026 when Modi makes an official visit to Brussels.
After that, the FTA requires parliamentary consent from all 27 EU member states and the European Parliament, but domestic paralysis in capitals like Paris could stall ratification, especially as France holds crucial Presidential elections in May 2027 and parliamentary elections in June. Polls place a high probability on an unprecedented victory in both elections by the far-right, populist National Rally party. That might block zero-duty access for 93 per cent of Indian exports. Renegotiation might take years, especially as the FTA already took 20 years.
Trade agreements are usually negotiated and supervised by the EU’s Executive Commission but, during his 22 October visit, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk directly courted India for independent ventures in defence manufacturing, AI and mining machinery. He positioned Poland as a logistics and manufacturing gateway for India to Central and Eastern Europe. No EU country has made such an offer in the past. He even called Modi a ‘beacon of hope’.
Notably, EU criticism of India’s purchases of Russian crude oil has completely dissolved because of the collapsing domestic budgets, cost-of-living riots and severe energy shortages in member countries. Europeans have an urgent need for diesel and jet fuel that only Indian refineries can provide. Both the EU and individual countries like Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Britain are also urgently seeking to build trusted supply chains in India to rearm Europe and reduce dependence on the US.
Europeans have an urgent need for diesel and jet fuel that only Indian refineries can provide
The deep divide within Europe regarding the proxy war with Russia has completely altered how European leaders treat India’s strategic autonomy. They seem eager to become acolytes of Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar. The increasing distrust of Washington’s reliability as a security partner under the NATO alliance framework is forcing Europeans to become a laboratory of military innovation independent of the Pentagon. That has increased interest in working with Indian enterprises, provided that trust issues can be solved arising from India’s deep military-industrial entanglement with Moscow.
Severe risks of operational paralysis remain for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which was begun as a maritime-rail alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative. European fragmentation together with the Iran war, closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions at Dubai's Jebel Ali port have put IMEC's core Middle East transit artery on indefinite hold. A cash-strapped EU has zero surplus capital to back mega-railway networks spanning the Arabian Peninsula. It is still struggling to find at least €70 billion to fund Ukraine’s war efforts this year. In the interim, India has shifted focus to an ‘IMEC Ports Club’ that would build direct deep-sea shipping agreements between India's Adani Ports and major European gateways like Marseille Fos in France and Trieste in Italy.
The author is an international affairs columnist for Business India. He can be contacted at brijkk@gmail.com